Phew! What an eventful 10 days it's been thus far in the Tour - the organisers had planned the stages in way to make them unpredictable and we certainly saw action from the first day. All stages have been contested right to the wire, a small group of French riders would go on a breakaway every day (most caught but some succeeded), Riccardo Ricco has taken two stage wins while looking like he could overtake the motorbikes on the climbs, our own Mark Cavendish showed he really is the world's fastest sprinter by winning two stages with the promise of more to come. And then the race hit the Pyrenees...
The favourite to win this year's Tour - in the absence of Alberto Contador, who could probably win the whole thing on a single mountain stage - is Cadel Evans. After him, the main contenders were seen to be Alejandro Valverde, Damiano Cunego, Frank Schleck, Carlos Sastre and Denis Menchov. At least, that was before yesterday's stage - how would they fare on the first day of the really big climbs of the Tour: the Tourmalet and the Hautacam?
None of the teams were taking it easy and the pace was quick all the way to the bottom of the Tourmalet. As usual, a small group of French riders had gone ahead, along with Fabian Cancellara (not known for his climbing ability!) who is in the same team (CSC) as Schleck and Sastre. Anyway, this small group was a good 15mins ahead on the climb when both Valverde and Cunego start cracking... they just couldn't keep up with the pace. This news was fed through to the group at the front and CSC started pushing even harder to eliminate two of the contenders. Cancellara stopped at the top of the Tourmalet to wait for his colleagues and took up the pacing on the descent and flat section before the final climb. As he is one of the fastest men in the race, Valverde et al had no chance of catching the leading group.
Once at the bottom of the Hautacam, the hard-working Cancellara moved aside, utterly exhausted after putting in an effort that gained over a minute on Valverde's group. Then Jens Voight (also CSC) took up the reins to keep the pace high and soon all the riders in the small breakaway group had been caught. Both Valverde and Cunego were losing time on the Hautacam, so their chances of winning were fading away. So who did we have left, apart from Evans? Schleck was about 1:50 behind Evans, Sastre about 1:30, Menchov about a minute. There were also three riders from Riccardo Ricco's team (Saunier Duval) and Ricco was only about two minutes behind Evans overall, thanks to the time he gained on one of his stage wins. Two from CSC, three from Saunier Duval, plus Menchov and Evans (and a few others). This is were team tactics really came into play.
After Jens Voight had expended all his energy, Schleck was the first to attack but he was soon caught. Then Sastre tried as well, caught again. Obviously, CSC were testing the strength of the riders in the ever-decreasing group. Frank Schleck shot off again but, this time, only Cobo Acebo from Saunier Duval could keep up with him. What does Evans do - use his energy by going after Schleck and tow Sastre up the climb? Or let Schleck go and hope to catch up to him eventually? He did the latter, so Schleck and Cobo Acebo started gaining time over the leading group. Eventually, Piepoli - a veteran and excellent climber - shot off to join the two at the front. They would not be caught, as Piepoli won the stage almost hand-in-hand with his colleague Cobo Acebo. Frank Schleck had gained enough time to be in with a chance of the leader's yellow jersey but Evans had put in a huge effort to keep a one second lead... but not before Ricco sprinted past him to the line, to show off just how good he really is.
This is how they stand after the first test in the Pyrenees:
Evans - leader
Schleck - 6 secs behind
Menchov - 57 secs
Sastre - 1:28
Cobo Acebo - 2:10
Ricco - 2:29
Until the race gets to the Alps, this is not likely to change. But, once it gets there, watch out for more team tactics! Evans and Menchov are isolated, with both CSC and Saunier Duval having two riders as contenders for the overall lead. As Evans is a better time-triallist (one rider, racing against the clock) than most of them, the other contenders need to attack in the mountains. Imagine the various scenarios:
Cobo Acebo attacks. If Evans follows, Ricco goes along for the ride and attacks later.
Ricco attacks. Evans uses his energy to stay with him, then Cobo Acebo attacks.
Sastre attacks. Evans will likely want to stay with him, as he's also a good time-triallist. But then Schleck can attack him.
And what if Schleck attacks? He could gain a few minutes on each of the stages and would see him favourite to win in Paris.
Saunier Duval's team is packed full of climbers, so expect fireworks in the mountains. CSC have the strongest team overall, so I can foresee a lot of attacks similar to the one on the Tourmalet - this time with the aim of dislodging Evans.
Bring on the Alps!
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